--- title: 'Forecasting Seven Days Average Number of COVID19 Cases' date: 2021-08-04 permalink: posts/2021/08/04/predicting_nsw_covid_cases categories: - covid19 - python - machine learning - bayes modelling tags: - python - machine learning - bayes modelling layout: notebook --- Bayesian_exponential_model

Import

Modules

Setup figure plot settings

Setup paths to import scripts

Scripts

Data

Audit

Split Data

Get prior distribution parameters

Model Training

Train Model

Model Evaluation

Get test prediction datam

Define custom metrics for model performance evaluation

Calculate performance metrics

Plot residuals

Model Inference

Distribution of model parameters

Summary of model parameters

Predict on Whole Data Set

Plot model posterior predictive and actual weekly rolling average for positive values of epidemiological days

Seven Days Forecast

Create data set containing forecast data

Plot actual and forecasted values